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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.