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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."